RULING ANC FACING LEADERSHIP AND CREDIBILITY CRISIS AT THE TIME OF 2012 ELECTIVE CONFERENCE

By Subry Govender

The ruling African National Congress, which is the oldest political movement on the African continent, is facing another leadership and credibility crisis in five years. This as the party - which celebrates its 100th anniversary this year - gears up for its week-long elective conference in the town of Manguang starting this Sunday.

The party is currently plagued by - among other things - deep factional infighting, uncertainity over economic policies to overcome the acute unemployment situation and allegations of widespread corruption and moral decay.

The 4 500 delegates - who will be attending the conference - are reported to be deeply divided as to whether or not to retain President Jacob Zuma or elect Deputy President Kgalema Motlanthe as leader of the party. They are also undecided about whether to adopt policies that will allow for state intervention in the economy to overcome the acute unemployment, spiralling poverty and deep social and economic divide between the haves and the have nots.

Thabo Mbeki

Zuma finds himself in the same situation as his predecessor - Thabo Mbeki - who faced a backlash when he was deposed during the last elective conference five years ago in the town of Polokwane.

Religious, business, civil society, and non-government organisations claim there is growing resentment against the current moral decay and corruption plaguing the ruling ANC and they want definite decisions to be taken against these anti-social developments at the conference.

MORAL DECAY

One of the leaders who has set the cat among the pigeons is Bishop Joe Seoka, who as president of the South African Council of Churches, has called for lesders of credibility to be elected at the conference - implying that there are some leaders who do not deserve to be elected at Manguang.

This is what he had to say in an interview this week:

"I am highly concerned that Manguang may actually be a disaster in that it will maintain the status quo because people are not electing leaders of integrity but are looking at what benefits will come their way if they maintain who is there already."

He went onto declare that the people were fed up as demonstrated by the recent upheavels in the platinum, coal, diamond and gold mines; the strikes on the vineyards in the Western Cape and the general discontent among other workers and the people in general.

"It's real," he said, "that there is an upsurge of new movement that is taking place and we can only educate people to vote people into power who will serve them, not people who are serving themselves".

ANC MUS ACT WITH URGENCY TO WORK WITH PRIVATE SECTOR

Political analysts are also concerned at the failure of the ruling ANC to tackle the serious social and economic issues affecting the masses who have been left behind following the advent of our new democracy in 1994.

Zakhele Ndlovu is a senior political lecturer and analyst at the University of KwaZulu-Natal in Durban. He warned that the ANC conference must come out with positive policies that would promote the well-being of the unemployed, the poor, distadvantaged and the marginalised.

"There are serious and fundamental economic and social equity things," he said, "that have to be resolved now and they have to be resolved with a greater sense of urgency."

The CEO Business Unity South Africa, Ms Nomacebe Mogjwene, was also blunt that the ANC conference must come up with clear economic policies and greater economic clarity so that the private sector could work with the Government to overcome the unemployment and poverty problems facing the country.

"We really hope that the conference of the ANC, " she said, "will look into that and would emerge with powerful signals that the government will work with the private sector in order to get our country back on track."

Similar sentiments have been expressed by other economic anlysts.

ZUMA HEADING FOR SECOND TERM

Despite the concerns of non-government role players, Zuma has been predicted to retain his position as he has already mustered the support of six of the nine provinces. He hopes to remain in power along with secretary general, Gwede Mantashe; national chairperson, Ms Baleka Mbete; new assistant secretary general, Ms Jesse Duarte; and another newcomer to the top six, KwaZulu-Natal Premier, Zweli Mkhize, as national treasurer. He has not indicated whether he would accept the position to replace current national treasurer, Mathew Phosa.

Phosa has been very critical of Zuma and whether he would be included in Zuma's top six appears to be slim at this stage.

Deputy President, Kgalema Motlanthe, has now on Wednesday, December 12, confirmed that he would oppose Zuma. Phosa has also indicated that he would stand in the Motlanthe top six as his Deputy President.

Now that Motlanthe has made his intentions known, business magnate and former ANC secretary general, Cyril Ramaphosa, will make himself available to stand for the Deputy President's position in Zuma's top six.
The latest developments clearly demonstrate that there will be a serious fight for the top six at Manguang. Whichever faction emerges victorious will not resolve the deep divisions within the party.
It's hoped that the ANC leaders will demonstrate statesmanship and accept the results without any animosity and recriminations.
But one thing is clear:  Zuma, who appears to have the lost the support of many members of the general public, NGOs, and other role players, will not have all his way at the conference. He will be watched with keen interest by all concerned.

Many people believe that Zuma's possible re-election may be in the interests of himself, his hangers-on and supporters - but it will definitely not be in the greater good of the country.